How bad do you think it's going to be? In your own opinion, do you think it will last longer than are last one. I myself feel that this could be a bad one. Do you guys think that i'm way of base, or are we in for something fierce? :cheers

I don't know how bad it is going to be but a lot of people have no clue about it. Some people I know keep on spending every last dime they got and this should be a time to save a little money at least. With all the lay-offs and small businesses going under who's to know if you r job will be there tomorrow.

There are always layoffs, there are always small businesses going under. The economy still enjoys full employment, solid earnings growth, solid R&D spending, and low interest rates.

Recession has a definition. We are nowhere near that definition. We may be seeing a stock market correction, but more likely we're seeing yet another speculative overreaction. These things happen literally all the time. The difference is, it's an election year and any of the economic hiccups that happen as a normal function of an economy get blown up into doom-and-gloom so candidates can elbow each other out of the way to be first to say how much they "care" and promise to "do something".

There are always layoffs, there are always small businesses going under. The economy still enjoys full employment, solid earnings growth, solid R&D spending, and low interest rates.

Recession has a definition. We are nowhere near that definition. We may be seeing a stock market correction, but more likely we're seeing yet another speculative overreaction. These things happen literally all the time. The difference is, it's an election year and any of the economic hiccups that happen as a normal function of an economy get blown up into doom-and-gloom so candidates can elbow each other out of the way to be first to say how much they "care" and promise to "do something".

+1

Chill on the reccession talk...

There are always layoffs, there are always small businesses going under. The economy still enjoys full employment, solid earnings growth, solid R&D spending, and low interest rates.

Recession has a definition. We are nowhere near that definition. We may be seeing a stock market correction, but more likely we're seeing yet another speculative overreaction. These things happen literally all the time. The difference is, it's an election year and any of the economic hiccups that happen as a normal function of an economy get blown up into doom-and-gloom so candidates can elbow each other out of the way to be first to say how much they "care" and promise to "do something".

Since there is a continuing surplus of foreclosures on houses, won’t that at some point cause a recession, along with the unemployment rate going up. I just don’t remember our last recession having too much of an effect around me. But right now it looks and feels worse than are last one.

That brings me to the other point that you brought up. How and when would they define a recession, if it was coming? I could probably look this up, but if your bored maybe you can lay it out in laymen’s terms.:cheers

alan greenspan for prez!

but seriously.....its gonna suck having dust and dirt everywhere again.

Recession not near???
The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080113/ap_on_bi_ge/recession_odds





I've been buying Silver for awhile myself. Anytime a recession looms, the dollar drops, and war etc., this will go up.
This is as of today.
http://kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif

I think we are inline for a bad recession. The statistics for the rise of foreclosures does not make things look good.

the DOW is near its 52 weeks low... That's a pretty bad way to start 2008

everything's fine. go out and spend your money on crap... open another credit line and max that bitch- take advantage of the low interest rates baby!!!!!

purchase the biggest SUV you can find with all the bells and whistles.

it's the only way to show the turrsts they won't win.

everyone knows that the so called "economists" are just a bunch of liberal hippies who want to bring america down with all their "looming recession" talk. it's just a plot for hitlery and obama bin laden to make YOUR KIDS GAY!!!!!

everything's fine. go out and spend your money on crap... open another credit line and max that bitch- take advantage of the low interest rates baby!!!!!

purchase the biggest SUV you can find with all the bells and whistles.

it's the only way to show the turrsts they won't win.

everyone knows that the so called "economists" are just a bunch of liberal hippies who want to bring america down with all their "looming recession" talk. it's just a plot for hitlery and obama bin laden to make YOUR KIDS GAY!!!!!

Are you being sarcastic!! :scratch :shifty :lol

Are you being sarcastic!! :scratch :shifty :lol

Yep it was sarcasm. Scary that it sounds JUST LIKE some Rush Dimbaugh idiots running around this Nation though. LOL! :biggrin

kinda scarey regardless

http://www.comcast.net/data/br/2008/01/21/br-21963.jpg
LONDON - Stocks fell sharply worldwide Monday following declines on Wall Street last week amid investor pessimism over the U.S. government's stimulus plan to prevent a recession.
U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but the downbeat mood from last week's market declines there circled through Europe, Asia and Canada. The U.K. benchmark FTSE-100 dropped 4.7 percent to 5,625.20; France's CAC-40 Index plunged 5.9 percent to 4,793.39, while Germany's blue-chip DAX 30 slumped 6.74 percent to 6,821.42.
In Asia, India's benchmark stock index tumbled 7.4 percent, while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 percent to 23,818.86, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
Canadian stocks fell as well, with the S&P/TSX composite index on the Toronto Stock Exchange down 4.8 percent. In Brazil, stocks plunged 6.9 percent on the main index of Sao Paulo's Bovespa exchange.
Investors dumped shares because they were skeptical that an economic stimulus plan President Bush announced Friday would shore up the economy that has been battered by problems in its housing and credit markets. The plan, which requires approval by Congress, calls for about $145 billion worth of tax relief to encourage consumer spending.
"We've taken our lead from the Asian markets who have not been impressed by the U.S. There's debate if there's going to be a recession in the U.S. I don't think there's much chance of that though," said Richard Hunter an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers Ltd. in London.
Concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, a major export market for Asian companies, has sent the region's markets sliding in 2008. Just last Wednesday, the Hang Seng index sank 5.4 percent.
"It's another horrible day," said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "Today it's because of disappointment that the U.S. stimulus (package) is too little, too late and investors feel it won't help the economy recover."
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index slid 3.9 percent to close at 13,325.94 points, its lowest close in more than two years. China's Shanghai Composite index plunged 5.1 percent, partly on worries about mainland Chinese banks' exposure to risky U.S. mortgage investments.
"People are certainly nervous about a potential recession in the U.S. spilling over to the rest of the world," said David Cohen, Director of Asian Economic Forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.
"Maybe there's still some wariness about politicians are able to come up with a compromise and act sufficiently quickly" on a stimulus package, Cohen said. "I think the impact would be marginal anyway."
Investors took cues from the negative reaction to the president's plan on Wall Street on Friday, when the Dow Jones industrial average slid 0.5 percent to 12,099.30, bringing its loss for the year so far to nearly 9 percent.
Traders also have shrugged off assurances from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. central bank is ready to act aggressively _ which means a likely big interest rate cut later this month _ to help the sagging economy.
Some analysts predict that Asia won't suffer dramatically from a U.S. recession because increased trade and investment within Asia has made the region less reliant on the United States than in the past. Excluding Japan, 43 percent of Asia's exports go to other nations in the region, Lehman Brothers calculates, up from 37 percent in 1995.
But on Monday, uncertainty and pessimism reigned.
In Tokyo trading, exporters got hit hard, partly because of the yen's recent strength against the dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. lost 3.3 percent and Honda Motor Co. sank 3.4 percent.
Shares of Bank of China dropped 6.4 percent in Hong Kong after the South China Morning Post newspaper reported that the bank is expected to announce a "significant write-down" in U.S. subprime mortgage securities, citing unidentified sources. In Shanghai, the bank's stock declined 4.1 percent.
India's the benchmark Sensex index fell 1,353 points, or 7.4 percent _ its second-biggest percentage drop ever _ to 17,605.35 points. At one point, it was down nearly 11 percent.
The decline hit companies across the board, with power utility Reliance Energy Ltd. falling 16.4 percent. Major software company Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. slid 7.6 percent
"A gloomy U.S. climate has affected the global markets. Even if those markets recover, it will take sometime for the recovery to reach India because today's fall has been so drastic," said Jayant Pai, of the Mumbai investment company IL&FS Ltd.
Still, Pai and others suggested that the declines could lead to a buying opportunity.
"The sell-off today takes us close to the bottom," she said.
Since the start of the year, Japan's Nikkei index has declined 13 percent, while Hong Kong's blue-chip index is down more than 14 percent. Even China's Shanghai index _ which nearly doubled last year _ has fallen 6.6 percent over the same period and nearly 20 percent from its all-time closing high on Oct. 16.

Asian Markets taking a hit due to US market failure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7201658.stm

Again....for all clueless idiots stuck on stupid and NOT paying attention to REALITY on planet earth....

And for those claiming recession has a "definition" and we aren't near that definition.


World stock markets plunge as global recession fears grow

Stocks plummeted across the world on Monday amid fears of a global recession, with markets in Europe suffering their biggest one-day losses since the September 11th attacks on the United States.


Dealers said a major new plan by President George W. Bush to prevent a US recession was not enough to offset the stream of bad news from banks due to the crisis in the American housing market.

"People aren't buying the US bail-out story and that feeling has been exacerbated by the weakness overnight in the Asian markets," said Richard Hunter, equities analyst at broker Hargreaves Lansdown in London.

"The other thing we have seen today is a lack of buying interest -- people are battening down the hatches while they see what happens in the US," he said, noting that Wall Street was closed Monday for a national holiday.

A credit squeeze prompted by a crisis in the US subprime, or high-risk, mortgage sector has given way to a wider malaise in the world's biggest economy, with unemployment rising and the dollar falling.

Many analysts now fear that the US slowdown could damage the world economy.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080121/bs_afp/stocksworld_080121214357




Jesus Christ....WHY are WE the ones having to CONSTANTLY INFORM you clowns????

WAKE UP!:dissapointed

We betta watch this one closely!!!I think we are in for it!

We betta watch this one closely!!!I think we are in for it!

I'll be buying more silver and making MORE money on it's little drop....

Dollar goes down, worry and silver goes up. :punk

Five days after I wrote the above, Larry Kudlow pointed out that 2 of the 4 economic indicators that are used to technically define "recession" had begun to nose over. They were still high, but in his words, they bared watching. Meanwhile, the other 2 were showing no signs of tapering off.

Here's a link to the charts. They're about halfway down the page, on 15 January.

http://www.kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/

I have been working in wholesale residential financing for the last 9 years. Since late 2006 225 financial institutions have gone bankrupt and closed. Housing market is in the toilet and will continue to get worse for at least another quarter. Sales are down across the nation. People are being laid off left and right.

Let me give you an example of a chain reaction thats been happening.

Financial institutions have been going under causing financing to be tough to obtain especially the no money down loans. The first thing this affect is the employees of that bank. The are now out of a job and forced to look else where. Well since this is going on everywhere else in residential lending there are no other openings really popping up.

Now you have Mr. Builder. Mr. Builder builds most of the new homes in your area. Now Mr. Builder is starting to feel the rippling affect from the banks closing. Thus making his lender window for financing smaller and smaller without money down. Now he is noticing the financing is getting tougher and less people are able to buy a new home even with great credit scores. Now Mr. Builder has all this inventory of homes thats not moving. He puts a hold on all other homes being built until he can start getting rid of his inventory. Now because he has put the building on hold. He now has to call the contractors. The contractors then get with there employees and tell them "unfortunatly I need to do a lay off as there is no work currently right now"

Now you have all those workers who are layed off now trying to figure out how there gonna pay there bills. Some are able to get another job some have wives to help others have no choice but to live off there credit. Meaning cash advances on credit cards, paying food with credit. This now eventually maxes out Mr.layoff. Well because he has not been able to find a desent job to pay the bills he now finds himself with unrealistic monthly minium payments from his credit cards he cant pay for.

Mean while back at MR. Builders, the situation with our economy still has not improved.The homes arent selling so now Mr. builder decides to drop all home prices by 70k with free upgrades. Hoping to spark more intrest in buying a new home and saving his ass. This starts to work some what.

Meanwhile we have all heard the the FEDs have cut rates by .75 to try to help us from going into a recession. So Mr. Refi Guy sees this on TV and decides he wants to refi his home. He wants to save money as he has not been doing well either. He goes and sees a guy like me. Mr. refi guy has awesome credit and with the currents rates available I can save him hundreds of dollars a month. So I tell Mr. Refi guy let me check and see what your value is worth vs. what you owe and make sure we can do this.

Now Mr. refi guy got a great deal on his home 2 years ago. He thinks it should be good to go for his home holding some sort of desent value in his local market. So I do some checking for him. Turns out Mr. Refi guy is actually buried in his home because MR. Builder who wanted to drop the prices of his homes a month or so ago has now effected the market. Because he was selling his homes below the market value at the time; Mr refi guy as well as everyone else in that community who wants to refinance is now affected. Why? Because all lenders are required to use other comparables (homes like your own) to justify the value. So now MR. refi guy see's that he is stuck and is unable to refinance is home for the lower rates.

Back to the workers that were laid off from the builder. Since they still have been in a downward spiral since the layoff, they find themselves unable to pay for there mortgage. The bank ends up wanting to foreclose on them. But Mr. Layoff finds out from his bank that he can do a shortsale (meaning selling it for extremely less than what the value of the home is worth even though he owes more on the home as long as the bank is ok with it.) Now this situation happens constantly. Situations such as this and foreclosures have flooded our market nationwide and causing home values to keep dropping.

Meanwhile back at MR. Builder the banks continue to tighten things up. The builder can barely keep a float and is forced to file for bankruptcy and close his doors. Now this is happening to many other builders than just him. And because it is a rippling effect it now will eventually hurt your local small business contractors who live off jobs such as these. Since this is a majority of there business. Now for whatever reason the contractors are unable to keep afloat themselves and are forced to do more layoffs at other jobsites and utilize a smaller work force and thats if there not forced to close there doors.. And this cycle continues on and on.

What Im getting at is the rescession is coming weather we are ready or not. There will be more blood shed on the financial end of things still yet to come.
The feds and goverment trying to use the stimules plan and lower the rates are not going to stop this, it may slow it up but we will end up in a recession.

Unless this situations stops or slows down there is no way to avoid it.

This is the core of our issues. Now layer this with everything else in the economy.

I didnt even touch the other small business affected by the economy.

I'm in the mortgage industry and let me tell you, it's fucking grim. I've been looking to get out of the business since August. The prospects I get are in even worse shape than the subprime borrowers from last June and July! I really should have researched the industry before I took this job. The "doom and gloom" is real, I think. One only has to research the mortgage crisis (check out how banks bundled mortgage backed securities). Even here in the Midwest where peaks and valleys aren't as dramatic as in high growth areas, we have a glut of unsold homes, mortgage brokerages closing, desperate borrowers, delinquent owners walking away from their homes, builders walking away from their developments, you name it! My brother in law is a union carpenter who used to do a lot of residential work, now travels out of state to do commercial jobs. There are a lot of former loan originators and real estate agents in the job market right now and the competition is tough. I never used to have a hard time changing jobs... till now.

I'm in the mortgage industry and let me tell you, it's fucking grim. I've been looking to get out of the business since August. The prospects I get are in even worse shape than the subprime borrowers from last June and July! I really should have researched the industry before I took this job. The "doom and gloom" is real, I think. One only has to research the mortgage crisis (check out how banks bundled mortgage backed securities). Even here in the Midwest where peaks and valleys aren't as dramatic as in high growth areas, we have a glut of unsold homes, mortgage brokerages closing, desperate borrowers, delinquent owners walking away from their homes, builders walking away from their developments, you name it! My brother in law is a union carpenter who used to do a lot of residential work, now travels out of state to do commercial jobs. There are a lot of former loan originators and real estate agents in the job market right now and the competition is tough. I never used to have a hard time changing jobs... till now.

My mortgage broker and real estate agent have nearly 30 years combined experience and they have stated that this is the worst they have seen the housing market. There are builders in my area that have gone bankrupt and the model homes are selling for $100K below their original list 1 year ago. This hyper inflation of the housing market combined with ridiculous ARM mortgage option(s) screwed many people over leaving homes empty and banks with big inventories that they cannot sell. I was told that our city currently has a vacancy rate of nearly 30% (I'm skeptical it's that high - figure may include new builds), but when I have looked at 20 homes in 1 month and the average listing on them is over 160 days, with a price reduction of over $40K, it's a bad sign.

On the most recent home I've looked at, I put my offer in at 10% below list. I didn't expect them to respond and they did with an acceptance. Waiting on inspection to pass :)